Estimating Profitability of Alternative Cryptocurrencies

Digital currencies have flourished in recent years, buoyed by the tremendous success of Bitcoin. These blockchainbased currencies, called altcoins, are associated with a few thousand to millions of dollars of market capitalization. Altcoins have attracted enthusiasts who enter the market by mining or buying them, but the risks and rewards could potentially be significant, especially when the market is volatile. In this work, we estimate the potential profitability of mining and speculating 18 altcoins using real-world blockchain and trade data. Using opportunity cost as a metric, we estimate the mining cost for an altcoin with respect to a more popular but stable coin. For every dollar invested in mining or buying a coin, we compute the potential returns under various conditions, such as time of market entry and hold positions. While some coins offer the potential for spectacular returns, many follow a simple bubble-and-crash scenario, which highlights the extreme risks — and potential gains — in altcoin markets.1